[SMM Analysis] Post-National Day Ternary Cathode Market: Price Increase Expectations Persist, Upstream Transaction Transmission Still Needs Time to Develop

Post-holiday, ternary cathode material prices continued to rise sharply. The current price increase is primarily driven by the significant surge in cobalt sulphate prices. Although nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices have temporarily stabilized, they are still expected to rise further under the influence of cobalt sulphate. Recently, lithium chemical prices have remained generally stable, with lithium carbonate holding steady and lithium hydroxide continuing a slight decline. Overall, ternary cathode material prices are expected to maintain strong upward momentum next week.

Currently, the price increases in the sulphate segment have not been fully passed down to downstream battery cell manufacturers, who have very limited acceptance of the rising ternary material prices. Under cost pressure, cathode plants also have limited acceptance of higher discount coefficients for upstream ternary cathode precursors. Post-holiday, the overall market sentiment is predominantly wait-and-see, with transactions becoming more cautious. Further transmission of upstream transaction conditions still needs to be monitored.

Demand side, the ternary market in October is expected to continue the positive trend seen in September, mainly driven by domestic EV market demand, with notably stronger growth in mid- to high-nickel material orders. Overseas market side, influenced by the US One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), expectations for the US end-use market in Q4 are becoming more cautious; European market demand, however, is expected to see some recovery.